Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Thin in the Pen? You'll have to SPEND.

This offseason in Major League Baseball we've seen several multi-year contracts signed by middle relievers.  Joaquin Benoit signed with the Detroit Tigers for 3 years for $16.5 million earlier this offseason and that set the bar for other relievers to find perhaps more lucrative deals with teams that have more money to spend than the Tampa Bay Rays did on Benoit.

While pitchers like Benoit and lefty Scott Downs already had their payday, others are still looking for jobs, and might be of great help to a contending team if they are willing to spend a little extra dough.

Anyone who knows baseball will tell you that pitching and defense wins championships, and that having a strong bullpen is a big part of that.  Teams for the most part have decided to spend their money on offense and starting pitching and hope to fill the bullpen with more cost-effective players.

Most experts agree that the bullpen is not a fixed element and that pens like the Giants for example, will not maintain the high level of efficiency that they had in 2010 for every season.  Some teams like to fill their bullpen with young guys from within the organization.  This can be successful decision, as it was for the Atlanta Braves in 2010 with Mike Dunn and Jonny Venters, but they can't hope to have the same kind of consistency from these guys each year.

There are plenty of good relief options still on the market, including Rafael Soriano, Octavio Dotel, Brian Fuentes, and Kevin Gregg.  All are most likely seeking multi-year deals because their numbers are comparable to others who signed contracts of that nature.  There will be some teams when this offseason comes to close that will have missed out on top-of-the-line starting pitching and offense.  They need to spend their money elsewhere and beef up their relief corps with some big names.

For teams like the Phillies, who have the luxury of having starters who can go deep into games, they don't need to spend as much money on signing these big name relievers.  While they still need some help in their bullpen, they can afford to rely on some younger guys from their minor league system to carry the middle-relief workload.  They should be able to feed off of the positive energy of a team full of veterans who know how to win.

For those other teams who think they need some big time help in their pen, it's time to fetch your wallets.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Merry Cliffmas and Happy Halladays!!!

Greetings folks!  In light of recent events, my plan to discuss part 2 of the Phillies offseason needs have been derailed.  In case you missed it, the Philadelphia Phillies made arguably the biggest splash in this year's free agent market by bringing back left-handed ace Cliff Lee.  Lee was a fan favorite in 2009 when the Phillies acquired him from the Cleveland Indians along with outfielder Ben Francisco for four minor league players.  He was inexplicably traded to the Seattle Mariners for 3 prospects, while the Phillies acquired ace Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays for a package that included 2 of their most talked about prospects: right-handed pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Michael Taylor.

It was an unpopular move from a fan's perspective, but the blow was ultimately softened by Halladay's Cy Young 2010 season.  The Phillies later claimed that they were uncomfortable signing Lee to an extension at the time, despite his love of the team and the city.

Cliff's willingness to return to Philadelphia was quite clear when he signed a 5-year, $120 million deal with the team, which also includes a vesting option for a sixth year, turning down about $20-30 million and extra years from both the Rangers and the Yankees.

About a week earlier, free agent and former Phillies rightfielder Jayson Werth signed a 7-year, $126 million contract with Washington Nationals (read my previous entry if you want my opinion on that one).  Jayson Werth's desire to take the most money was contrasted in popularity by Cliff Lee's desire to take less and return to Philadelphia.  What made Lee's decision even sweeter to Philadelphians is the fact that he turned down the New York Yankees, who are accustomed to always "getting their man" with their bottomless pockets.  Cliff Lee has instantly become one of the most beloved athletes in the city of brotherly love because of this move, but the Phils are pushing a tight budget.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. needed the OK from ownership to elevate the payroll to a franchise record $160 million plus for a special player like Cliff Lee.  However, the Phillies are looking to move some of that payroll before opening day and a player like Joe Blanton has become expendable with $17 million remaining on his contract for the next 2 seasons.

With so many teams in need of starting pitching these days, Blanton could be a valuable piece for any club in need of some help.  He isn't an overpowering pitcher, but he is consistent when he's healthy, and there's something to be said for having a guy who you know what you're going to get out of him each and every time his day rolls around.  Now, they would have to eat some of his salary to trade him, which is okay, but depending on how much it is, they would be better off keeping him and having more pitching depth.

Another name that's come up in possible trade talks has been Raul Ibanez.  Moving him would be complicated, however, for a variety of different reasons.  The first is that he is owed $11.5 million this year and the Phils would probably have to eat 75% of his salary.  Another is the fact that he has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which he would have to waive to accept any trade to another club.  He would also want to be guaranteed an extension with any team that acquires him, which is highly unlikely at his old age.  The best case scenario would involve an American League team that sorely needs production from a designated hitter.  Whether or not Raul would accept a role as a consistent DH is unknown.  All of these factors make it hard

The Phillies have some minor holes to fill, and now that they have four starting pitchers that can go deep into games, they should be able to get by with a bullpen of mostly youngsters from within the organization.  Still, it would be nice to bolster the roster a bit with some young, major league-ready guys in return for Blanton or Ibanez.  Another outfielder, preferably right-handed, a reliever, and some bench help would be a welcome addition to the team.

They are in good position though, because Big Joe's contract doesn't start paying him until opening day, and by that time another team's starter could go down with an injury, and that would put the Phils in command of any deal.  They will be patient and wait to hear a deal they like and that suits their needs.  Meanwhile, fans should be happy: they have potentially the best rotation ever.

Only 2 months until pitchers and catchers report!

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Phirst Entry: Phillies Offseason So Far... (Part 1)

Where there's smoke, there's usually fire.  In this case, any flames to speak of are catching in the head of Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro Jr.

The Phillies have been relatively quiet this offseason, which is a bit of a double-edged sword in my opinion.  To the casual observer of the Phillies organization, they would seem to be doing next-to nothing at all, but there is evidence to suggest otherwise.  Fans of the team in recent years have come to expect spectacular, monumental deals that have changed the landscape of competition in the National League.  While we shouldn't be surprised anymore, the normally tight-lipped general manager always seems to spring some pretty great things on us.

Almost like when you know someone's going to throw you a surprise party, but it could be any day at any time.  The good news is, while we're sitting here laughing, the Phillies brass is doing the thinking.  Let's hope they remember to bring the ice cream cake this year.

But I digress...

Before I talk about what I think the Phils need to do to have a successful offseason, here's what they've done so far:

#1) Re-signed RHP Jose Contreras
This is a solid move by Amaro.  One of the biggest concerns going into this offseason was suring up the bullpen.  Clearly, it was the only major weakness on this team in 2009, although they turned it on during the last month and a half of the season to help them claim their 4th NL East crown.  Especially concerning for the Phillies is the back end of their bullpen with Brad Lidge's inconsistency in the past two seasons.

Contreras' deal is for 2-years and worth about $5.5 million.  In his first full season as a reliever, he was great, posting a 3.45 ERA over the course of the season with a 44.7% groundball rate.  The Phillies are hoping they can get the same kind of production out of Contreras in 2011.  The only drawback to this deal is the second year, which was most likely necessary to lock him up early in the offseason, but the good new is that it won't cost them very much.

Contreras will be 40 years old mid way through the life of the contract, and while his fastball hit as high as 94 mph, I would have concerns about any pitcher at that age.  Otherwise, this decision could turn out to be a vital one for the next couple seasons.

#2) Lost Jayson Werth to the Washington Nationals
Okay, so this is more of what they didn't do than what they did, but I feel compelled to comment on the utter ridiculousness of this deal. The Nats are paying him $126 million over 7 years. 7 YEARS!!  No one, and I mean NO ONE else offered him a contract for more than 4! Not Philly, not Detroit, not even BOSTON would commit to that.  As much as they are going to overpay him, that's really not what erked me the most about this deal.

The man left Philadelphia, a place where he could have gotten at least one more ring before the end of his career to go to a last place team, where he, especially after the departure of Adam Dunn, is gonna be the go-to guy; they're asking a complimentary piece to be a superstar.  He produced well with Ryan Howard hitting in front of him, but we'll see how he does with a lineup filled with young, inexperienced players. 

Werth is the kind of player that you sign when you're already in contention and need that extra piece to put your team over the top.  The Nationals are definitely not in that position, and they might not be until the fifth, sixth, or maybe even seventh year of Jayson's contract.  By that time his production could all but disappear, and his contract would prevent the Nationals from being more flexible with free agency in the future.

Honestly, I wish him all the best with the rest of his career though.  The man was waiting his entire life for a chance to hit free agency and sign a mega-deal.  More of the blame falls upon the Washington Nationals, who to their credit, got the player they wanted, but definitely overspent.  Bad teams start with bad management, just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates' organization.  You could fill out almost an entire All-Star roster with the players they've traded away or let walk over the past decade or so.  Signing Jayson Werth to a deal worth that much over that period of time is just bad for business. Sorry.

#3) Signed LHP Dennys Reyes
Dennys, meet Danys.  Let's hope he's not another Baez bust.  The lone major league player joining the Phillies' roster from the MLB Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida is a journeyman left-handed reliever.  Reyes has played for 11 major league clubs, including the Phillies.  Last season with the Cardinals Reyes posted an ERA in the mid-3s.  He's a respectable reliever, but there's a catch.  Reyes walks a batter for every 2 innings pitched, and after starting the season with an ERA under 1 through May, he pitched to one closer to 6 the rest of the season.

The deal is said to be for one year, $1.1 million, with a club option for 2012.  At this price he's a decent option for the Phils, despite not being a very attractive name in the free-agent market.  This by no means indicates that the Phillies offseason plans for the bullpen are over, but I do have a small problem with this signing.

When as a team you make it known around the league that the bullpen is your biggest need, everyone (the fanbase included) expects you to spend a good wad of dough on the best arms available.

The offseason for the Phillies thus far is a bit lackluster for my tastes, but their cost-effective mindset to this point keeps the hope alive that there could be something big in the works...
Phew...I realize that was a lot folks but there's a lot to catch up on.  Which is why I decided to split this entry in two.  In part two I'll examine needs that the club still needs to address and some of the rumors circulating out there about the Phightins. Stay tuned!!